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United States economy

Inflation, interest rates and what markets expect for them, growth and jobs, and financial stress, from FRED and the federal statistical agencies.

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General information only: nothing on TakeProfits takes into account your objectives, financial situation or needs, and it isn't personal financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Consider whether it suits you and get advice from a licensed adviser before acting. Market data may be delayed and comes from third-party sources.

Inflation and purchasing power

How fast consumer prices are rising, what that does to the value of money, and what markets and surveys expect inflation to be.

Consumer prices: headline and core CPI

Year-over-year change in the CPI and in the CPI excluding food and energy.

Shaded: US recessions (NBER)
CPI inflation: 3.7% in Sep 2026 (previous 3.4% in Aug 2026). Since Nov 2016 the low was 0.2% (May 2020) and the high 9.0% (Jun 2022). Core CPI: 2.6% in Sep 2026 (previous 2.4% in Aug 2026). Since Nov 2016 the low was 1.2% (Jun 2020) and the high 6.6% (Sep 2022).
CPI inflation
3.7%
Sep 2026 · change +0.4 pp
Core CPI
2.6%
Sep 2026 · change +0.1 pp
Data table
Latest observations: US CPI inflation
Period CPI inflation Source value (CPIAUCSL)
Sep 2026 3.7% 336.298
Aug 2026 3.4% 334.131
Jul 2026 3.3% 332.813
Jun 2026 3.5% 332.568
May 2026 4.2% 333.979
Apr 2026 3.8% 332.407
Mar 2026 3.3% 330.293
Feb 2026 2.4% 327.46
Jan 2026 2.4% 326.588
Dec 2025 2.7% 326.031
Nov 2025 2.7% 325.063
Sep 2025 3.0% 324.245
Latest observations: US core CPI inflation
Period Core CPI Source value (CPILFESL)
Sep 2026 2.6% 338.896
Aug 2026 2.4% 337.765
Jul 2026 2.5% 336.789
Jun 2026 2.6% 336.065
May 2026 2.8% 336.121
Apr 2026 2.7% 335.423
Mar 2026 2.6% 334.165
Feb 2026 2.5% 333.512
Jan 2026 2.5% 332.793
Dec 2025 2.6% 331.814
Nov 2025 2.6% 331.043
Sep 2025 3.0% 330.418

PCE prices: the Federal Reserve's target measure

The Fed's 2% inflation objective is defined in terms of PCE inflation.

Shaded: US recessions (NBER)
PCE inflation: 3.4% in Aug 2026 (previous 3.4% in Jul 2026). Since Nov 2016 the low was 0.5% (Apr 2020) and the high 7.2% (Jun 2022). Core PCE: 3.0% in Aug 2026 (previous 3.0% in Jul 2026). Since Nov 2016 the low was 1.0% (Jun 2020) and the high 5.6% (Sep 2022).
PCE inflation
3.4%
Aug 2026 · change +0.1 pp
Core PCE
3.0%
Aug 2026 · change 0.0 pp
Data table
Latest observations: US PCE inflation
Period PCE inflation Source value (PCEPI)
Aug 2026 3.4% 131.579
Jul 2026 3.4% 131.172
Jun 2026 3.5% 131.106
May 2026 3.8% 131.241
Apr 2026 3.6% 130.672
Mar 2026 3.4% 130.105
Feb 2026 2.8% 129.293
Jan 2026 2.7% 128.845
Dec 2025 2.8% 128.455
Nov 2025 2.7% 128.045
Oct 2025 2.7% 127.79
Sep 2025 2.8% 127.601
Latest observations: US core PCE inflation
Period Core PCE Source value (PCEPILFE)
Aug 2026 3.0% 130.455
Jul 2026 3.0% 130.133
Jun 2026 3.0% 129.969
May 2026 3.2% 129.796
Apr 2026 3.1% 129.395
Mar 2026 3.1% 129.03
Feb 2026 3.0% 128.701
Jan 2026 2.9% 128.27
Dec 2025 2.9% 127.765
Nov 2025 2.7% 127.363
Oct 2025 2.7% 127.165
Sep 2025 2.8% 126.94

Purchasing power of the US dollar

What a consumer dollar buys compared with 1982-84 (= 100).

Purchasing power: 29.7 in Sep 2026 (previous 29.9 in Aug 2026). Since Nov 2016 the low was 29.7 (Sep 2026) and the high 41.4 (Nov 2016).
Purchasing power
29.7
Sep 2026 · change −0.2
Data table
Latest observations: Purchasing power of the US consumer dollar
Period Purchasing power
Sep 2026 29.7
Aug 2026 29.9
Jul 2026 29.9
Jun 2026 29.9
May 2026 29.8
Apr 2026 30.0
Mar 2026 30.3
Feb 2026 30.6
Jan 2026 30.7
Dec 2025 30.9
Nov 2025 30.9
Sep 2025 30.8

What prices have done to a US dollar

Calculated from the CPI index level: change = (index now ÷ index then − 1) × 100.

Cumulative rise in consumer prices to Sep 2026
Since Prices up What cost US$100 then costs now US$100 now buys what this bought then
Sep 2025 (1 year) 3.7% US$103.72 US$96.42
Sep 2021 (5 years) 22.8% US$122.78 US$81.45
Sep 2016 (10 years) 39.4% US$139.44 US$71.71
Sep 2006 (20 years) 65.8% US$165.83 US$60.30
Sep 1996 (30 years) 113.3% US$213.25 US$46.89

To Sep 2026, using the seasonally adjusted CPI for all urban consumers. Averages across consumers; your own costs depend on what you buy.

Market inflation expectations (breakevens)

Average inflation priced by the Treasury market over the next five and ten years.

5-year breakeven: 2.39% on 20 Oct 2026 (previous 2.38% on 19 Oct 2026). Since 24 Oct 2016 the low was 0.14% (19 Mar 2020) and the high 3.59% (25 Mar 2022). 10-year breakeven: 2.35% on 20 Oct 2026 (previous 2.35% on 19 Oct 2026). Since 24 Oct 2016 the low was 0.50% (19 Mar 2020) and the high 3.02% (21 Apr 2022).
5-year breakeven
2.39%
20 Oct 2026 · change +0.01 pp
10-year breakeven
2.35%
20 Oct 2026 · change 0.00 pp
Data table
Latest observations: US 5-year breakeven inflation
Period 5-year breakeven
20 Oct 2026 2.39%
19 Oct 2026 2.38%
16 Oct 2026 2.37%
15 Oct 2026 2.33%
14 Oct 2026 2.36%
13 Oct 2026 2.33%
9 Oct 2026 2.34%
8 Oct 2026 2.37%
7 Oct 2026 2.37%
6 Oct 2026 2.37%
5 Oct 2026 2.36%
2 Oct 2026 2.37%
Latest observations: US 10-year breakeven inflation
Period 10-year breakeven
20 Oct 2026 2.35%
19 Oct 2026 2.35%
16 Oct 2026 2.35%
15 Oct 2026 2.32%
14 Oct 2026 2.35%
13 Oct 2026 2.33%
9 Oct 2026 2.33%
8 Oct 2026 2.35%
7 Oct 2026 2.36%
6 Oct 2026 2.36%
5 Oct 2026 2.36%
2 Oct 2026 2.36%

Interest rates and rate expectations

The central bank policy rate, government bond yields and what futures markets are pricing for the policy rate.

Federal funds rate: target range and effective rate

The range the Federal Reserve sets and the overnight rate banks actually pay.

Shaded: US recessions (NBER)
Fed funds target: 3.75–4.00% on 21 Oct 2026, set on 17 Sep 2026 (previous 3.50–3.75% until 16 Sep 2026). Since 22 Oct 2016 the low was 0.25% (16 Mar 2020) and the high 5.50% (27 Jul 2023). Effective fed funds: 3.88% on 19 Oct 2026 (previous 3.88% on 18 Oct 2026). Since 22 Oct 2016 the low was 0.04% (23 Apr 2020) and the high 5.33% (27 Jul 2023).
Fed funds target
3.75–4.00%
Since 17 Sep 2026 · change +0.25 pp
Effective fed funds
3.88%
19 Oct 2026 · change 0.00 pp
Data table
Latest observations: Federal funds target range
Period Fed funds target
21 Oct 2026 4.00%
20 Oct 2026 4.00%
19 Oct 2026 4.00%
18 Oct 2026 4.00%
17 Oct 2026 4.00%
16 Oct 2026 4.00%
15 Oct 2026 4.00%
14 Oct 2026 4.00%
13 Oct 2026 4.00%
12 Oct 2026 4.00%
11 Oct 2026 4.00%
10 Oct 2026 4.00%
Latest observations: Effective federal funds rate
Period Effective fed funds
19 Oct 2026 3.88%
18 Oct 2026 3.88%
17 Oct 2026 3.88%
16 Oct 2026 3.88%
15 Oct 2026 3.88%
14 Oct 2026 3.88%
13 Oct 2026 3.88%
12 Oct 2026 3.88%
11 Oct 2026 3.88%
10 Oct 2026 3.88%
9 Oct 2026 3.88%
8 Oct 2026 3.88%

Market-implied path for the federal funds rate

What 30-Day Federal Funds futures are pricing for the average policy rate in each coming month.

Market pricing, not a forecast

Each contract settles on the average effective federal funds rate in its month, so its price implies a rate: implied rate = 100 − futures price. A price of 96.10 implies an average rate of 3.90%. This is what traders are paying for, not a forecast by anyone: prices include risk premia, thin contracts can trade rarely, and quotes are delayed.

Target range now
3.75–4.00%
21 Oct 2026
Effective rate now
3.88%
19 Oct 2026
Implied for May 2027
4.535%
Furthest contract collected
Lines for earlier dates show how pricing has shifted. They come from the snapshots collected here since 19 Oct 2026 (3 trading days so far).
Implied federal funds rate by contract month, snapshot of 21 Oct 2026
Contract month Futures price Implied rate vs effective rate now Last trade
Oct 2026 ZQV26.CBT 96.118 3.882% 0 bp
Nov 2026 ZQX26.CBT 96.085 3.915% +4 bp
Dec 2026 ZQZ26.CBT 95.925 4.075% +20 bp
Jan 2027 ZQF27.CBT 95.850 4.150% +27 bp
Feb 2027 ZQG27.CBT 95.745 4.255% +38 bp
Mar 2027 ZQH27.CBT 95.665 4.335% +46 bp
Apr 2027 ZQJ27.CBT 95.555 4.445% +57 bp
May 2027 ZQK27.CBT 95.465 4.535% +66 bp

A difference of 25 basis points (0.25 percentage points) is roughly one standard-sized rate move fully priced by that month. This is an approximation: it ignores risk premia and when in the month a meeting falls.

Source: Yahoo Finance (CBOT 30-Day Federal Funds futures) (opens in a new tab) Collected · 9 hours ago Quotes may be delayed

Treasury yields: 3-month, 2-year and 10-year

Market yields on US government debt at three maturities.

Shaded: US recessions (NBER)
3-month Treasury: 4.27% on 19 Oct 2026 (previous 4.26% on 16 Oct 2026). Since 24 Oct 2016 the low was 0.00% (25 Mar 2020) and the high 5.63% (6 Oct 2023). 2-year Treasury: 4.77% on 19 Oct 2026 (previous 4.74% on 16 Oct 2026). Since 24 Oct 2016 the low was 0.09% (5 Feb 2021) and the high 5.19% (17 Oct 2023). 10-year Treasury: 5.15% on 19 Oct 2026 (previous 5.09% on 16 Oct 2026). Since 24 Oct 2016 the low was 0.52% (4 Aug 2020) and the high 5.31% (5 Oct 2026).
3-month Treasury
4.27%
19 Oct 2026 · change +0.01 pp
2-year Treasury
4.77%
19 Oct 2026 · change +0.03 pp
10-year Treasury
5.15%
19 Oct 2026 · change +0.06 pp
Data table
Latest observations: US 3-month Treasury bill yield
Period 3-month Treasury
19 Oct 2026 4.27%
16 Oct 2026 4.26%
15 Oct 2026 4.28%
14 Oct 2026 4.28%
13 Oct 2026 4.26%
9 Oct 2026 4.25%
8 Oct 2026 4.23%
7 Oct 2026 4.22%
6 Oct 2026 4.21%
5 Oct 2026 4.22%
2 Oct 2026 4.19%
1 Oct 2026 4.17%
Latest observations: US 2-year Treasury yield
Period 2-year Treasury
19 Oct 2026 4.77%
16 Oct 2026 4.74%
15 Oct 2026 4.77%
14 Oct 2026 4.82%
13 Oct 2026 4.79%
9 Oct 2026 4.80%
8 Oct 2026 4.75%
7 Oct 2026 4.77%
6 Oct 2026 4.79%
5 Oct 2026 4.84%
2 Oct 2026 4.83%
1 Oct 2026 4.78%
Latest observations: US 10-year Treasury yield
Period 10-year Treasury
19 Oct 2026 5.15%
16 Oct 2026 5.09%
15 Oct 2026 5.10%
14 Oct 2026 5.19%
13 Oct 2026 5.21%
9 Oct 2026 5.24%
8 Oct 2026 5.22%
7 Oct 2026 5.28%
6 Oct 2026 5.27%
5 Oct 2026 5.31%
2 Oct 2026 5.28%
1 Oct 2026 5.24%

Real 10-year yield

The yield on inflation-protected Treasuries: the return after inflation.

Real 10-year yield: 2.80% on 19 Oct 2026 (previous 2.74% on 16 Oct 2026). Since 24 Oct 2016 the low was −1.19% (3 Aug 2021) and the high 2.95% (5 Oct 2026).
Real 10-year yield
2.80%
19 Oct 2026 · change +0.06 pp
Data table
Latest observations: US 10-year real yield (TIPS)
Period Real 10-year yield
19 Oct 2026 2.80%
16 Oct 2026 2.74%
15 Oct 2026 2.78%
14 Oct 2026 2.84%
13 Oct 2026 2.88%
9 Oct 2026 2.91%
8 Oct 2026 2.87%
7 Oct 2026 2.92%
6 Oct 2026 2.91%
5 Oct 2026 2.95%
2 Oct 2026 2.92%
1 Oct 2026 2.88%

Proxy: 2-year yield minus the effective federal funds rate

A rough market-based gauge of where rates are expected to go over two years.

Shaded: US recessions (NBER) Shaded: below zero
2-year minus policy rate: 0.89 pp on 19 Oct 2026 (previous 0.86 pp on 16 Oct 2026). Since 24 Oct 2016 the low was −1.77 pp (16 Sep 2024) and the high 2.62 pp (14 Jun 2022).
2-year minus policy rate
0.89 pp
19 Oct 2026 · change +0.03 pp

2-year minus policy rate: periods below zero (at least ten observations in a row, newest first)

  • 13 Feb 2025 to 10 Mar 2026, lowest −0.84 pp
  • 15 Jan 2025 to 11 Feb 2025, lowest −0.16 pp
  • 13 Mar 2023 to 9 Jan 2025, lowest −1.77 pp
  • 6 Jan 2023 to 13 Feb 2023, lowest −0.49 pp
Data table
Latest observations: US 2-year yield minus the effective fed funds rate (proxy)
Period 2-year minus policy rate Source value (DGS2 − DFF)
19 Oct 2026 0.89 pp 4.77 − 3.88
16 Oct 2026 0.86 pp 4.74 − 3.88
15 Oct 2026 0.89 pp 4.77 − 3.88
14 Oct 2026 0.94 pp 4.82 − 3.88
13 Oct 2026 0.91 pp 4.79 − 3.88
9 Oct 2026 0.92 pp 4.8 − 3.88
8 Oct 2026 0.87 pp 4.75 − 3.88
7 Oct 2026 0.89 pp 4.77 − 3.88
6 Oct 2026 0.91 pp 4.79 − 3.88
5 Oct 2026 0.96 pp 4.84 − 3.88
2 Oct 2026 0.95 pp 4.83 − 3.88
1 Oct 2026 0.90 pp 4.78 − 3.88

Growth and employment

Whether the economy is expanding and how the labour market is holding up.

Unemployment rate

Share of the labour force without a job and looking for one.

Shaded: US recessions (NBER)
Unemployment rate: 4.2% in Sep 2026 (previous 4.1% in Aug 2026). Since Nov 2016 the low was 3.4% (Apr 2023) and the high 14.8% (Apr 2020).
Unemployment rate
4.2%
Sep 2026 · change +0.1 pp
Data table
Latest observations: US unemployment rate
Period Unemployment rate
Sep 2026 4.2%
Aug 2026 4.1%
Jul 2026 4.1%
Jun 2026 4.2%
May 2026 4.3%
Apr 2026 4.3%
Mar 2026 4.3%
Feb 2026 4.4%
Jan 2026 4.3%
Dec 2025 4.4%
Nov 2025 4.5%
Sep 2025 4.4%

Nonfarm payrolls: monthly change

Jobs added or lost each month, from the establishment survey.

Payrolls change: +29,000 in Sep 2026 (previous +133,000 in Aug 2026). Since Nov 2016 the low was −20,469,000 (Apr 2020) and the high +4,631,000 (Jun 2020).
Payrolls change
+29,000
Sep 2026 · change −104,000
Data table
Latest observations: US nonfarm payrolls, monthly change
Period Payrolls change Source value (PAYEMS)
Sep 2026 +29,000 159,044
Aug 2026 +133,000 159,015
Jul 2026 −10,000 158,882
Jun 2026 +31,000 158,892
May 2026 +63,000 158,861
Apr 2026 +148,000 158,798
Mar 2026 +214,000 158,650
Feb 2026 −156,000 158,436
Jan 2026 +160,000 158,592
Dec 2025 −17,000 158,432
Nov 2025 +41,000 158,449
Oct 2025 −140,000 158,408

Labour force participation rate

Share of the population aged 16 and over that is working or looking for work.

Shaded: US recessions (NBER)
Participation rate: 61.8% in Sep 2026 (previous 61.6% in Aug 2026). Since Nov 2016 the low was 60.1% (Apr 2020) and the high 63.3% (Oct 2019).
Participation rate
61.8%
Sep 2026 · change +0.2 pp
Data table
Latest observations: US labour force participation rate
Period Participation rate
Sep 2026 61.8%
Aug 2026 61.6%
Jul 2026 61.4%
Jun 2026 61.5%
May 2026 61.8%
Apr 2026 61.8%
Mar 2026 61.9%
Feb 2026 62.0%
Jan 2026 62.1%
Dec 2025 62.4%
Nov 2025 62.5%
Sep 2025 62.5%

Real GDP growth

Quarterly growth at an annualised rate, and growth over the past year.

Shaded: US recessions (NBER)
Real GDP (annualised): 2.2% in Q2 2026 (previous 2.5% in Q1 2026). Since Q1 2017 the low was −28.0% (Q2 2020) and the high 34.9% (Q3 2020). Real GDP (year): 2.2% in Q2 2026 (previous 2.6% in Q1 2026). Since Q1 2017 the low was −7.4% (Q2 2020) and the high 12.6% (Q2 2021).
Real GDP (annualised)
2.2%
Q2 2026 · change −0.3 pp
Real GDP (year)
2.2%
Q2 2026 · change −0.4 pp
Data table
Latest observations: US real GDP growth (annualised quarterly)
Period Real GDP (annualised)
Q2 2026 2.2%
Q1 2026 2.5%
Q4 2025 0.2%
Q3 2025 3.9%
Q2 2025 4.0%
Q1 2025 0.1%
Q4 2024 2.4%
Q3 2024 3.2%
Q2 2024 3.6%
Q1 2024 1.4%
Q4 2023 3.6%
Q3 2023 4.5%
Latest observations: US real GDP growth over the year
Period Real GDP (year) Source value (GDPC1)
Q2 2026 2.2% 24,408.011
Q1 2026 2.6% 24,274.383
Q4 2025 2.0% 24,125.479
Q3 2025 2.6% 24,112.966
Q2 2025 2.4% 23,884.563
Q1 2025 2.3% 23,650.213
Q4 2024 2.6% 23,641.759
Q3 2024 2.9% 23,501.76
Q2 2024 3.3% 23,320.074
Q1 2024 2.9% 23,115.975
Q4 2023 3.4% 23,033.25
Q3 2023 3.2% 22,828.796

Initial jobless claims (weekly)

New claims for unemployment insurance: the most timely labour-market data.

Shaded: US recessions (NBER)
Jobless claims: 199,000 in the week to 10 Oct 2026 (previous 198,000 in the week to 3 Oct 2026). Since week to 22 Oct 2016 the low was 189,000 (week to 18 Jul 2026) and the high 6,137,000 (week to 4 Apr 2020).
Jobless claims
199,000
week to 10 Oct 2026 · change +1,000
Data table
Latest observations: US initial jobless claims
Period Jobless claims
week to 10 Oct 2026 199,000
week to 3 Oct 2026 198,000
week to 26 Sep 2026 199,000
week to 19 Sep 2026 198,000
week to 12 Sep 2026 198,000
week to 5 Sep 2026 207,000
week to 29 Aug 2026 207,000
week to 22 Aug 2026 204,000
week to 15 Aug 2026 207,000
week to 8 Aug 2026 212,000
week to 1 Aug 2026 200,000
week to 25 Jul 2026 198,000

Financial stress

Signs of strain in credit and funding markets, expected share-market volatility and the shape of the yield curve.

Corporate credit spreads

Extra yield investors demand to hold company debt instead of Treasuries.

Shaded: US recessions (NBER)
Baa spread: 1.46 pp on 19 Oct 2026 (previous 1.46 pp on 16 Oct 2026). Since 24 Oct 2016 the low was 1.36 pp (12 Nov 2024) and the high 4.31 pp (23 Mar 2020). Investment-grade spread: 0.87 pp on 20 Oct 2026 (previous 0.87 pp on 19 Oct 2026). Since 20 Oct 2023 the low was 0.73 pp (22 Jan 2026) and the high 1.33 pp (20 Oct 2023). High-yield spread: 3.33 pp on 20 Oct 2026 (previous 3.29 pp on 19 Oct 2026). Since 20 Oct 2023 the low was 2.59 pp (22 Jan 2025) and the high 4.61 pp (7 Apr 2025).
Baa spread
1.46 pp
19 Oct 2026 · change 0.00 pp
Investment-grade spread
0.87 pp
20 Oct 2026 · change 0.00 pp
High-yield spread
3.33 pp
20 Oct 2026 · change +0.04 pp
Data table
Latest observations: Moody's Baa corporate bond spread
Period Baa spread
19 Oct 2026 1.46 pp
16 Oct 2026 1.46 pp
15 Oct 2026 1.44 pp
14 Oct 2026 1.44 pp
13 Oct 2026 1.46 pp
9 Oct 2026 1.45 pp
8 Oct 2026 1.48 pp
7 Oct 2026 1.46 pp
6 Oct 2026 1.46 pp
5 Oct 2026 1.46 pp
2 Oct 2026 1.47 pp
1 Oct 2026 1.49 pp
Latest observations: US investment-grade corporate spread (ICE BofA OAS)
Period Investment-grade spread
20 Oct 2026 0.87 pp
19 Oct 2026 0.87 pp
16 Oct 2026 0.85 pp
15 Oct 2026 0.84 pp
14 Oct 2026 0.84 pp
13 Oct 2026 0.83 pp
12 Oct 2026 0.83 pp
9 Oct 2026 0.83 pp
8 Oct 2026 0.82 pp
7 Oct 2026 0.82 pp
6 Oct 2026 0.83 pp
5 Oct 2026 0.84 pp
Latest observations: US high-yield corporate spread (ICE BofA OAS)
Period High-yield spread
20 Oct 2026 3.33 pp
19 Oct 2026 3.29 pp
16 Oct 2026 3.31 pp
15 Oct 2026 3.23 pp
14 Oct 2026 3.25 pp
13 Oct 2026 3.16 pp
12 Oct 2026 3.11 pp
9 Oct 2026 3.11 pp
8 Oct 2026 3.15 pp
7 Oct 2026 3.09 pp
6 Oct 2026 3.03 pp
5 Oct 2026 3.12 pp

Expected share-market volatility (VIX)

Volatility of the S&P 500 implied by option prices over the next 30 days.

Shaded: US recessions (NBER)
VIX: 17.31 on 20 Oct 2026 (previous 18.44 on 19 Oct 2026). Since 24 Oct 2016 the low was 9.14 (3 Nov 2017) and the high 82.69 (16 Mar 2020).
VIX
17.31
20 Oct 2026 · change −1.13
Data table
Latest observations: CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)
Period VIX
20 Oct 2026 17.31
19 Oct 2026 18.44
16 Oct 2026 19.99
15 Oct 2026 16.46
14 Oct 2026 16.87
13 Oct 2026 15.27
12 Oct 2026 15.21
9 Oct 2026 14.84
8 Oct 2026 15.41
7 Oct 2026 15.08
6 Oct 2026 15.01
5 Oct 2026 15.52

Yield curve slope

Long-term minus short-term Treasury yields. Below zero, the curve is inverted.

Shaded: US recessions (NBER) Shaded: below zero
Curve 10y-2y: 0.33 pp on 20 Oct 2026 (previous 0.38 pp on 19 Oct 2026). Since 24 Oct 2016 the low was −1.08 pp (3 Jul 2023) and the high 1.59 pp (29 Mar 2021). Curve 10y-3m: 0.86 pp on 20 Oct 2026 (previous 0.88 pp on 19 Oct 2026). Since 24 Oct 2016 the low was −1.89 pp (4 May 2023) and the high 2.27 pp (6 May 2022).
Curve 10y-2y
0.33 pp
20 Oct 2026 · change −0.05 pp
Curve 10y-3m
0.86 pp
20 Oct 2026 · change −0.02 pp

Curve 10y-2y: periods below zero (at least ten observations in a row, newest first)

  • 6 Jul 2022 to 26 Aug 2024, lowest −1.08 pp
  • 3 May 2007 to 21 May 2007, lowest −0.06 pp
  • 17 Aug 2006 to 20 Mar 2007, lowest −0.19 pp
  • 30 Jun 2006 to 26 Jul 2006, lowest −0.07 pp

Curve 10y-3m: periods below zero (at least ten observations in a row, newest first)

  • 29 Jul 2025 to 14 Aug 2025, lowest −0.13 pp
  • 17 Jun 2025 to 7 Jul 2025, lowest −0.17 pp
  • 26 Feb 2025 to 21 Mar 2025, lowest −0.19 pp
  • 25 Oct 2022 to 12 Dec 2024, lowest −1.89 pp
Data table
Latest observations: US yield curve: 10-year minus 2-year
Period Curve 10y-2y
20 Oct 2026 0.33 pp
19 Oct 2026 0.38 pp
16 Oct 2026 0.35 pp
15 Oct 2026 0.33 pp
14 Oct 2026 0.37 pp
13 Oct 2026 0.42 pp
9 Oct 2026 0.44 pp
8 Oct 2026 0.47 pp
7 Oct 2026 0.51 pp
6 Oct 2026 0.48 pp
5 Oct 2026 0.47 pp
2 Oct 2026 0.45 pp
Latest observations: US yield curve: 10-year minus 3-month
Period Curve 10y-3m
20 Oct 2026 0.86 pp
19 Oct 2026 0.88 pp
16 Oct 2026 0.83 pp
15 Oct 2026 0.82 pp
14 Oct 2026 0.91 pp
13 Oct 2026 0.95 pp
9 Oct 2026 0.99 pp
8 Oct 2026 0.99 pp
7 Oct 2026 1.06 pp
6 Oct 2026 1.06 pp
5 Oct 2026 1.09 pp
2 Oct 2026 1.09 pp

St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index

Zero is normal; above zero, more financial stress than average.

Shaded: US recessions (NBER)
St. Louis Fed stress: −0.72 in the week to 9 Oct 2026 (previous −0.47 in the week to 2 Oct 2026). Since week to 28 Oct 2016 the low was −0.96 (week to 24 Jan 2025) and the high 5.62 (week to 20 Mar 2020).
St. Louis Fed stress
−0.72
week to 9 Oct 2026 · change −0.25
Data table
Latest observations: St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
Period St. Louis Fed stress
week to 9 Oct 2026 −0.72
week to 2 Oct 2026 −0.47
week to 25 Sep 2026 −0.81
week to 18 Sep 2026 −0.70
week to 11 Sep 2026 −0.85
week to 4 Sep 2026 −0.79
week to 28 Aug 2026 −0.85
week to 21 Aug 2026 −0.81
week to 14 Aug 2026 −0.83
week to 7 Aug 2026 −0.77
week to 31 Jul 2026 −0.50
week to 24 Jul 2026 −0.83

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index

Zero is average; above zero, tighter financial conditions than average.

Shaded: US recessions (NBER)
Chicago Fed NFCI: −0.50 in the week to 16 Oct 2026 (previous −0.50 in the week to 9 Oct 2026). Since week to 28 Oct 2016 the low was −0.70 (week to 4 Jun 2021) and the high 0.31 (week to 3 Apr 2020).
Chicago Fed NFCI
−0.50
week to 16 Oct 2026 · change +0.01
Data table
Latest observations: Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index
Period Chicago Fed NFCI
week to 16 Oct 2026 −0.50
week to 9 Oct 2026 −0.50
week to 2 Oct 2026 −0.51
week to 25 Sep 2026 −0.52
week to 18 Sep 2026 −0.53
week to 11 Sep 2026 −0.54
week to 4 Sep 2026 −0.54
week to 28 Aug 2026 −0.55
week to 21 Aug 2026 −0.55
week to 14 Aug 2026 −0.55
week to 7 Aug 2026 −0.55
week to 31 Jul 2026 −0.54

Recent revisions

Official statistics are often revised after their first release. These are the latest changes we have seen to US series.

We record a revision when a value we already hold changes at the source. Tracking began on 20 Oct 2026, so revisions made before then are not shown, and figures are in the source's own units.

Recent revisions to United States series
Series Period Previous value Revised value Change Detected
Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index NFCI week to 9 Oct 2026 -0.499 -0.502 −0.003
Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index NFCI week to 2 Oct 2026 -0.507 -0.508 −0.001
Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index NFCI week to 25 Sep 2026 -0.517 -0.518 −0.001
Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index NFCI week to 18 Sep 2026 -0.527 -0.528 −0.001
Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index NFCI week to 11 Sep 2026 -0.536 -0.537 −0.001
Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index NFCI week to 4 Sep 2026 -0.543 -0.544 −0.001
Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index NFCI week to 28 Aug 2026 -0.547 -0.549 −0.002
Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index NFCI week to 21 Aug 2026 -0.549 -0.551 −0.002
Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index NFCI week to 14 Aug 2026 -0.547 -0.55 −0.003
Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index NFCI week to 7 Aug 2026 -0.544 -0.547 −0.003
Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index NFCI week to 31 Jul 2026 -0.539 -0.543 −0.004
Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index NFCI week to 24 Jul 2026 -0.534 -0.538 −0.004
Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index NFCI week to 17 Jul 2026 -0.528 -0.531 −0.003
Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index NFCI week to 10 Jul 2026 -0.522 -0.526 −0.004
Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index NFCI week to 3 Jul 2026 -0.516 -0.519 −0.003
IMPORTANT FINANCIAL DISCLAIMER: The information provided on this platform is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. All investments involve risk, including potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Take Profits is not a registered investment advisor and does not provide personalized investment advice. Users should conduct their own research and consult with qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions. Market data may be delayed and is provided by third-party sources.

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