US yield curve: 10-year minus 2-year
Whether long-term yields are above short-term yields. Below zero, the curve is inverted.
- Latest
- 0.33 pp
- Previous
- 0.38 pp
- Change
- −0.05 pp
- Frequency
- Daily
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US yield curve: 10-year minus 2-year
Whether long-term yields are above short-term yields. Below zero, the curve is inverted.
- Curve 10y-2y
- 0.33 pp
- 6 Jul 2022 to 26 Aug 2024, lowest −1.08 pp
- 3 May 2007 to 21 May 2007, lowest −0.06 pp
- 17 Aug 2006 to 20 Mar 2007, lowest −0.19 pp
- 30 Jun 2006 to 26 Jul 2006, lowest −0.07 pp
Data table
| Period | Curve 10y-2y |
|---|---|
| 20 Oct 2026 | 0.33 pp |
| 19 Oct 2026 | 0.38 pp |
| 16 Oct 2026 | 0.35 pp |
| 15 Oct 2026 | 0.33 pp |
| 14 Oct 2026 | 0.37 pp |
| 13 Oct 2026 | 0.42 pp |
| 9 Oct 2026 | 0.44 pp |
| 8 Oct 2026 | 0.47 pp |
| 7 Oct 2026 | 0.51 pp |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 0.48 pp |
| 5 Oct 2026 | 0.47 pp |
| 2 Oct 2026 | 0.45 pp |
Periods below zero
Runs of at least ten observations in a row below zero, newest first.
- 6 Jul 2022 to 26 Aug 2024: 537 observations, lowest −1.08 pp
- 3 May 2007 to 21 May 2007: 13 observations, lowest −0.06 pp
- 17 Aug 2006 to 20 Mar 2007: 147 observations, lowest −0.19 pp
- 30 Jun 2006 to 26 Jul 2006: 18 observations, lowest −0.07 pp
- 8 Jun 2006 to 28 Jun 2006: 15 observations, lowest −0.06 pp
- 31 Jan 2006 to 7 Mar 2006: 25 observations, lowest −0.16 pp
- 11 Feb 2000 to 26 Dec 2000: 220 observations, lowest −0.52 pp
- 15 Jun 1998 to 9 Jul 1998: 18 observations, lowest −0.07 pp
About this indicator
- What it measures
- The 10-year Treasury constant-maturity yield minus the 2-year yield.
- How it is calculated
- Calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis from the H.15 yields.
- How to read it
- Normally positive. An inverted curve (below zero) means markets expect rates to fall, often because they expect a slowdown; it has preceded most US recessions, with long and variable lags.
- Caveats
- An inversion is a market signal, not a forecast, and the lag to any downturn has ranged from months to years.
- Frequency
- Daily
- Typical release
- Each business day.
Sources
- 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity View at the source (opens in a new tab)
Recent observations
Newest first. For a calculated figure, the source value it comes from is shown beside it.
| Period | Curve 10y-2y | First recorded here |
|---|---|---|
| 20 Oct 2026 | 0.33 pp | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 19 Oct 2026 | 0.38 pp | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | 0.35 pp | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 15 Oct 2026 | 0.33 pp | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 14 Oct 2026 | 0.37 pp | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 13 Oct 2026 | 0.42 pp | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | 0.44 pp | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 8 Oct 2026 | 0.47 pp | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 7 Oct 2026 | 0.51 pp | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 0.48 pp | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 5 Oct 2026 | 0.47 pp | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 2 Oct 2026 | 0.45 pp | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 1 Oct 2026 | 0.46 pp | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 30 Sep 2026 | 0.41 pp | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 29 Sep 2026 | 0.37 pp | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 28 Sep 2026 | 0.32 pp | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 25 Sep 2026 | 0.36 pp | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 24 Sep 2026 | 0.31 pp | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 23 Sep 2026 | 0.26 pp | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 22 Sep 2026 | 0.25 pp | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 21 Sep 2026 | 0.20 pp | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 18 Sep 2026 | 0.25 pp | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 17 Sep 2026 | 0.27 pp | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 16 Sep 2026 | 0.27 pp | 20 Oct 2026 |
Revisions
We record a revision when a value we already hold changes at the source. Tracking began on 20 Oct 2026, so revisions made before then are not shown, and figures are in the source's own units.
No revisions detected
No stored value has changed since tracking began.
Related indicators
United States · Financial stress