CPI inflation
United States3.7%
How much consumer prices rose over the past year. Calculated by Take Profits from the source series.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED (opens in a new tab) Updated at source
Economy
The United States and Australia side by side: inflation, interest rates, growth and jobs, and financial stress. Every figure comes from an official statistics source and shows its period and release date; anything not yet collected is shown as unavailable.
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Inflation and purchasing power
How fast consumer prices are rising, what that does to the value of money, and what markets and surveys expect inflation to be.
CPI inflation
Australia3.9%
How much consumer prices rose over the year to the latest quarter.
Source: ABS via RBA statistical table G1 (opens in a new tab) Updated at source
Core PCE
United States3.0%
Underlying inflation on the Fed's preferred measure. Calculated by Take Profits from the source series.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis via FRED (opens in a new tab) Updated at source
Trimmed mean
Australia3.6%
Underlying inflation on the RBA's preferred measure.
Source: ABS via RBA statistical table G1 (opens in a new tab) Updated at source
10-year breakeven
United States2.35%
Average inflation the bond market is pricing over the next ten years.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via FRED (opens in a new tab) Updated at source
10-year breakeven
Australia2.4%
Average inflation the bond market is pricing over the next ten years.
Source: RBA statistical table G3 (opens in a new tab) Updated at source
US inflation and purchasing power in depth · Australian inflation and purchasing power in depth
Interest rates and rate expectations
The central bank policy rate, government bond yields and what futures markets are pricing for the policy rate.
Fed funds target
United States3.75–4.00%
The policy rate range set by the Federal Reserve.
Source: Federal Reserve (H.15) via FRED (opens in a new tab) Updated at source
Cash rate target
Australia4.60%
The policy rate set by the Reserve Bank of Australia.
Source: RBA statistical table F1 (opens in a new tab) Updated at source
2-year Treasury
United States4.77%
The market yield on 2-year US government debt.
Source: Federal Reserve (H.15) via FRED (opens in a new tab) Updated at source
2-year bond
Australia4.92%
The market yield on 2-year Australian Government bonds.
Source: RBA statistical table F2 (opens in a new tab) Updated at source
10-year Treasury
United States5.15%
The benchmark long-term interest rate for the US.
Source: Federal Reserve (H.15) via FRED (opens in a new tab) Updated at source
10-year bond
Australia5.31%
The benchmark long-term interest rate for Australia.
Source: RBA statistical table F2 (opens in a new tab) Updated at source
Rate expectations
US: Fed funds futures price an average federal funds rate of 4.34% for March 2027 (implied rate = 100 − futures price; market pricing, not a forecast; delayed).
Australia: cash rate futures pricing is not available here; see the ASX RBA Rate Tracker linked on the Australia page.
US interest rates and rate expectations in depth · Australian interest rates and rate expectations in depth
Growth and employment
Whether the economy is expanding and how the labour market is holding up.
Unemployment rate
United States4.2%
Share of the labour force without a job and looking for one.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED (opens in a new tab) Updated at source
Unemployment rate
Australia4.7%
Share of the labour force without a job and looking for one.
Source: ABS via RBA statistical table H5 (opens in a new tab) Updated at source
Payrolls change
United States+29,000
Jobs added or lost each month. Calculated by Take Profits from the source series.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED (opens in a new tab) Updated at source
Employment change
Australia−39,300
People employed, change from the previous month. Calculated by Take Profits from the source series.
Source: ABS via RBA statistical table H5 (opens in a new tab) Updated at source
Real GDP (year)
United States2.2%
Growth in inflation-adjusted output over the past four quarters. Calculated by Take Profits from the source series.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis via FRED (opens in a new tab) Updated at source
Real GDP (year)
Australia2.1%
Growth in inflation-adjusted output over the past four quarters.
Source: ABS via RBA statistical table H1 (opens in a new tab) Updated at source
US growth and employment in depth · Australian growth and employment in depth
Financial stress
Signs of strain in credit and funding markets, expected share-market volatility and the shape of the yield curve.
Curve 10y-2y
United States0.33 pp
Whether long-term yields are above short-term yields. Below zero, the curve is inverted.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via FRED (opens in a new tab) Updated at source
Curve 10y-2y
Australia0.40 pp
Whether long-term yields are above short-term yields. Below zero, the curve is inverted. Calculated by Take Profits from the source series.
Source: Calculated from RBA statistical table F2 (opens in a new tab) Updated at source
Baa spread
United States1.46 pp
Extra yield on lower-investment-grade company bonds over Treasuries.
Source: Moody's and Federal Reserve via FRED (opens in a new tab) Updated at source
BBB spread
Australia1.11 pp
Extra yield on BBB-rated Australian company bonds over government bonds. Calculated by Take Profits from the source series.
Source: Calculated from RBA statistical tables F3 and F2.1 (opens in a new tab) Updated at source
St. Louis Fed stress
United States−0.72
A weekly summary of 18 financial market measures. Zero is normal.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via FRED (opens in a new tab) Updated at source
Bank bill-OIS spread
Australia0 bp
The premium banks pay to borrow for three months over the expected cash rate. Calculated by Take Profits from the source series.
Source: Calculated from RBA statistical table F1 (ASX and FENICS data) (opens in a new tab) Updated at source
US financial stress in depth · Australian financial stress in depth
Where these figures come from
US figures come from FRED, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis's database, which republishes data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Federal Reserve and others. Australian figures come from the Reserve Bank of Australia's statistical tables and the Australian Bureau of Statistics. We check each source twice a day.
Some figures are calculated by us from the published series, such as US inflation from the CPI index level or the slope of the Australian yield curve. Each one says so and gives its formula on its indicator page. Read more in how the economy data works.