US 2-year yield minus the effective fed funds rate (proxy)
A simple proxy for whether markets expect rates to rise or fall over two years.
- Latest
- 0.89 pp
- Previous
- 0.86 pp
- Change
- +0.03 pp
- Frequency
- Daily
Calculated by Take Profits
Spread = 2-year Treasury yield − effective federal funds rate, on the same day (percentage points). The inputs are the official series listed under Sources; the result is not published by the source in this form.
General information only: nothing on TakeProfits takes into account your objectives, financial situation or needs, and it isn't personal financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Consider whether it suits you and get advice from a licensed adviser before acting. Market data may be delayed and comes from third-party sources.
US 2-year yield minus the effective fed funds rate (proxy)
A simple proxy for whether markets expect rates to rise or fall over two years.
- 2-year minus policy rate
- 0.89 pp
- 13 Feb 2025 to 10 Mar 2026, lowest −0.84 pp
- 15 Jan 2025 to 11 Feb 2025, lowest −0.16 pp
- 13 Mar 2023 to 9 Jan 2025, lowest −1.77 pp
- 6 Jan 2023 to 13 Feb 2023, lowest −0.49 pp
Data table
| Period | 2-year minus policy rate | Source value (DGS2 − DFF) |
|---|---|---|
| 19 Oct 2026 | 0.89 pp | 4.77 − 3.88 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | 0.86 pp | 4.74 − 3.88 |
| 15 Oct 2026 | 0.89 pp | 4.77 − 3.88 |
| 14 Oct 2026 | 0.94 pp | 4.82 − 3.88 |
| 13 Oct 2026 | 0.91 pp | 4.79 − 3.88 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | 0.92 pp | 4.8 − 3.88 |
| 8 Oct 2026 | 0.87 pp | 4.75 − 3.88 |
| 7 Oct 2026 | 0.89 pp | 4.77 − 3.88 |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 0.91 pp | 4.79 − 3.88 |
| 5 Oct 2026 | 0.96 pp | 4.84 − 3.88 |
| 2 Oct 2026 | 0.95 pp | 4.83 − 3.88 |
| 1 Oct 2026 | 0.90 pp | 4.78 − 3.88 |
Periods below zero
Runs of at least ten observations in a row below zero, newest first.
- 13 Feb 2025 to 10 Mar 2026: 266 observations, lowest −0.84 pp
- 15 Jan 2025 to 11 Feb 2025: 19 observations, lowest −0.16 pp
- 13 Mar 2023 to 9 Jan 2025: 459 observations, lowest −1.77 pp
- 6 Jan 2023 to 13 Feb 2023: 26 observations, lowest −0.49 pp
- 21 Jan 2020 to 13 Mar 2020: 38 observations, lowest −0.88 pp
- 17 Apr 2019 to 1 Nov 2019: 138 observations, lowest −0.70 pp
- 22 Mar 2019 to 15 Apr 2019: 17 observations, lowest −0.19 pp
- 3 Jul 2006 to 21 Apr 2008: 452 observations, lowest −1.81 pp
About this indicator
- What it measures
- How far the 2-year Treasury yield sits above or below today's overnight policy rate.
- How it is calculated
- Calculated by us for each day both series have a value: 2-year Treasury yield − effective federal funds rate.
- How to read it
- A positive gap suggests markets expect the policy rate to average higher over two years; a negative gap suggests cuts. It is a proxy, not a forecast.
- Caveats
- The 2-year yield also contains a term premium and moves with demand for Treasuries, so the gap is a rough gauge only. Fed funds futures give a more direct reading of market pricing.
- Frequency
- Daily
- Typical release
- Each business day, when both inputs are available.
Sources
- 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate View at the source (opens in a new tab)
- Federal Funds Effective Rate View at the source (opens in a new tab)
Recent observations
Newest first. For a calculated figure, the source value it comes from is shown beside it.
| Period | 2-year minus policy rate | Source value (DGS2 − DFF) | First recorded here |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Oct 2026 | 0.89 pp | 4.77 − 3.88 | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | 0.86 pp | 4.74 − 3.88 | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 15 Oct 2026 | 0.89 pp | 4.77 − 3.88 | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 14 Oct 2026 | 0.94 pp | 4.82 − 3.88 | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 13 Oct 2026 | 0.91 pp | 4.79 − 3.88 | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | 0.92 pp | 4.8 − 3.88 | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 8 Oct 2026 | 0.87 pp | 4.75 − 3.88 | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 7 Oct 2026 | 0.89 pp | 4.77 − 3.88 | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 0.91 pp | 4.79 − 3.88 | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 5 Oct 2026 | 0.96 pp | 4.84 − 3.88 | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 2 Oct 2026 | 0.95 pp | 4.83 − 3.88 | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 1 Oct 2026 | 0.90 pp | 4.78 − 3.88 | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 30 Sep 2026 | 1.00 pp | 4.88 − 3.88 | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 29 Sep 2026 | 1.01 pp | 4.89 − 3.88 | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 28 Sep 2026 | 1.04 pp | 4.92 − 3.88 | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 25 Sep 2026 | 0.93 pp | 4.81 − 3.88 | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 24 Sep 2026 | 0.99 pp | 4.87 − 3.88 | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 23 Sep 2026 | 0.97 pp | 4.85 − 3.88 | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 22 Sep 2026 | 0.83 pp | 4.71 − 3.88 | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 21 Sep 2026 | 0.88 pp | 4.76 − 3.88 | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 18 Sep 2026 | 0.88 pp | 4.76 − 3.88 | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 17 Sep 2026 | 0.79 pp | 4.67 − 3.88 | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 16 Sep 2026 | 1.11 pp | 4.74 − 3.63 | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 15 Sep 2026 | 1.04 pp | 4.67 − 3.63 | 20 Oct 2026 |
Revisions
We record a revision when a value we already hold changes at the source. Tracking began on 20 Oct 2026, so revisions made before then are not shown, and figures are in the source's own units.
No revisions detected
No stored value has changed since tracking began.
Related indicators
United States · Interest rates and rate expectations