Inflation, interest rates, growth and jobs, and financial stress, from the Reserve Bank of Australia's statistical tables and the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
How fast consumer prices are rising, what that does to the value of money, and what markets and surveys expect inflation to be.
Year-ended inflation from the quarterly CPI, and the RBA's preferred underlying measure.
| Period | CPI inflation |
|---|---|
| Jun qtr 2026 | 3.9% |
| Mar qtr 2026 | 4.1% |
| Dec qtr 2025 | 3.6% |
| Sep qtr 2025 | 3.2% |
| Jun qtr 2025 | 2.1% |
| Mar qtr 2025 | 2.4% |
| Dec qtr 2024 | 2.4% |
| Sep qtr 2024 | 2.9% |
| Jun qtr 2024 | 3.8% |
| Mar qtr 2024 | 3.6% |
| Dec qtr 2023 | 4.1% |
| Sep qtr 2023 | 5.3% |
| Period | Trimmed mean |
|---|---|
| Jun qtr 2026 | 3.6% |
| Mar qtr 2026 | 3.5% |
| Dec qtr 2025 | 3.3% |
| Sep qtr 2025 | 2.9% |
| Jun qtr 2025 | 2.7% |
| Mar qtr 2025 | 2.9% |
| Dec qtr 2024 | 3.2% |
| Sep qtr 2024 | 3.6% |
| Jun qtr 2024 | 4.0% |
| Mar qtr 2024 | 4.0% |
| Dec qtr 2023 | 4.2% |
| Sep qtr 2023 | 5.1% |
Year-ended inflation from the ABS complete monthly CPI, available from April 2025.
| Period | Monthly CPI |
|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | 4.0% |
| Jul 2026 | 3.5% |
| Jun 2026 | 3.8% |
| May 2026 | 4.0% |
| Apr 2026 | 4.2% |
| Mar 2026 | 4.6% |
| Feb 2026 | 3.7% |
| Jan 2026 | 3.8% |
| Dec 2025 | 3.8% |
| Nov 2025 | 3.4% |
| Oct 2025 | 3.8% |
| Sep 2025 | 3.6% |
| Period | Monthly trimmed mean |
|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | 3.6% |
| Jul 2026 | 3.6% |
| Jun 2026 | 3.6% |
| May 2026 | 3.5% |
| Apr 2026 | 3.4% |
| Mar 2026 | 3.3% |
| Feb 2026 | 3.3% |
| Jan 2026 | 3.3% |
| Dec 2025 | 3.3% |
| Nov 2025 | 3.2% |
| Oct 2025 | 3.3% |
| Sep 2025 | 3.2% |
What a dollar buys compared with September 2025 (= 100), calculated from the CPI.
| Period | Purchasing power | Source value (GCPIAG) |
|---|---|---|
| Jun qtr 2026 | 97.7 | 102.31 |
| Mar qtr 2026 | 98.3 | 101.7 |
| Dec qtr 2025 | 99.7 | 100.32 |
| Sep qtr 2025 | 100.3 | 99.73 |
| Jun qtr 2025 | 101.6 | 98.43 |
| Mar qtr 2025 | 102.4 | 97.7 |
| Dec qtr 2024 | 103.3 | 96.81 |
| Sep qtr 2024 | 103.5 | 96.62 |
| Jun qtr 2024 | 103.7 | 96.41 |
| Mar qtr 2024 | 104.8 | 95.41 |
| Dec qtr 2023 | 105.8 | 94.53 |
| Sep qtr 2023 | 106.5 | 93.94 |
Calculated from the CPI index level: change = (index now ÷ index then − 1) × 100.
| Since | Prices up | What cost A$100 then costs now | A$100 now buys what this bought then |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun qtr 2025 (1 year) | 3.9% | A$103.94 | A$96.21 |
| Jun qtr 2021 (5 years) | 24.1% | A$124.06 | A$80.61 |
| Jun qtr 2016 (10 years) | 35.6% | A$135.60 | A$73.75 |
| Jun qtr 2006 (20 years) | 71.5% | A$171.52 | A$58.30 |
| Jun qtr 1996 (30 years) | 120.9% | A$220.92 | A$45.26 |
Bond-market, economist and consumer expectations of inflation.
| Period | 10-year breakeven |
|---|---|
| Sep qtr 2026 | 2.4% |
| Jun qtr 2026 | 2.3% |
| Mar qtr 2026 | 2.4% |
| Dec qtr 2025 | 2.3% |
| Sep qtr 2025 | 2.3% |
| Jun qtr 2025 | 2.1% |
| Mar qtr 2025 | 2.2% |
| Dec qtr 2024 | 2.3% |
| Sep qtr 2024 | 2.3% |
| Jun qtr 2024 | 2.4% |
| Mar qtr 2024 | 2.5% |
| Dec qtr 2023 | 2.6% |
| Period | Economists, 1 year |
|---|---|
| Sep qtr 2026 | 3.0% |
| Jun qtr 2026 | 3.0% |
| Mar qtr 2026 | 3.0% |
| Dec qtr 2025 | 2.8% |
| Sep qtr 2025 | 2.8% |
| Jun qtr 2025 | 2.8% |
| Mar qtr 2025 | 3.1% |
| Dec qtr 2024 | 3.1% |
| Sep qtr 2024 | 2.7% |
| Jun qtr 2024 | 2.9% |
| Mar qtr 2024 | 3.1% |
| Dec qtr 2023 | 3.2% |
| Period | Consumers, 1 year |
|---|---|
| Sep qtr 2026 | 4.9% |
| Jun qtr 2026 | 5.5% |
| Mar qtr 2026 | 5.2% |
| Dec qtr 2025 | 4.7% |
| Sep qtr 2025 | 4.7% |
| Jun qtr 2025 | 5.0% |
| Mar qtr 2025 | 3.6% |
| Dec qtr 2024 | 4.2% |
| Sep qtr 2024 | 4.4% |
| Jun qtr 2024 | 4.4% |
| Mar qtr 2024 | 4.3% |
| Dec qtr 2023 | 4.5% |
The central bank policy rate, government bond yields and what futures markets are pricing for the policy rate.
The RBA's policy rate: monthly average from 1990 and daily from 2011.
| Period | Cash rate (monthly) |
|---|---|
| Sep 2026 | 4.36% |
| Aug 2026 | 4.35% |
| Jul 2026 | 4.35% |
| Jun 2026 | 4.35% |
| May 2026 | 4.31% |
| Apr 2026 | 4.10% |
| Mar 2026 | 3.96% |
| Feb 2026 | 3.83% |
| Jan 2026 | 3.60% |
| Dec 2025 | 3.60% |
| Nov 2025 | 3.60% |
| Oct 2025 | 3.60% |
| Period | Cash rate target |
|---|---|
| 21 Oct 2026 | 4.60% |
| 20 Oct 2026 | 4.60% |
| 19 Oct 2026 | 4.60% |
| 16 Oct 2026 | 4.60% |
| 15 Oct 2026 | 4.60% |
| 14 Oct 2026 | 4.60% |
| 13 Oct 2026 | 4.60% |
| 12 Oct 2026 | 4.60% |
| 9 Oct 2026 | 4.60% |
| 8 Oct 2026 | 4.60% |
| 7 Oct 2026 | 4.60% |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 4.60% |
What ASX 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate futures are pricing for the RBA's cash rate.
Not available on Take Profits
As a rough substitute, the proxy below compares the 2-year government bond yield with the cash rate target. It is a proxy, not market pricing of the cash rate and not a forecast: bond yields also carry a term premium and follow global yields.
0.32 pp
A simple proxy for whether markets expect the cash rate to rise or fall over two years. Calculated by Take Profits from the source series.
Source: Calculated from RBA statistical tables F1 and F2 (opens in a new tab) Updated at source
4.60%
The policy rate set by the Reserve Bank of Australia.
Source: RBA statistical table F1 (opens in a new tab) Updated at source
3-month bank bills and 2- and 10-year Australian Government bonds.
| Period | 3-month bank bills |
|---|---|
| 21 Oct 2026 | 4.82% |
| 20 Oct 2026 | 4.77% |
| 19 Oct 2026 | 4.78% |
| 16 Oct 2026 | 4.76% |
| 15 Oct 2026 | 4.73% |
| 14 Oct 2026 | 4.78% |
| 13 Oct 2026 | 4.76% |
| 12 Oct 2026 | 4.77% |
| 9 Oct 2026 | 4.77% |
| 8 Oct 2026 | 4.78% |
| 7 Oct 2026 | 4.77% |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 4.77% |
| Period | 2-year bond |
|---|---|
| 14 Oct 2026 | 4.92% |
| 13 Oct 2026 | 4.89% |
| 12 Oct 2026 | 4.90% |
| 9 Oct 2026 | 4.91% |
| 8 Oct 2026 | 4.91% |
| 7 Oct 2026 | 4.94% |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 4.93% |
| 2 Oct 2026 | 4.91% |
| 1 Oct 2026 | 4.99% |
| 30 Sep 2026 | 4.94% |
| 29 Sep 2026 | 4.98% |
| 28 Sep 2026 | 5.06% |
| Period | 10-year bond |
|---|---|
| 14 Oct 2026 | 5.31% |
| 13 Oct 2026 | 5.29% |
| 12 Oct 2026 | 5.32% |
| 9 Oct 2026 | 5.33% |
| 8 Oct 2026 | 5.39% |
| 7 Oct 2026 | 5.40% |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 5.39% |
| 2 Oct 2026 | 5.33% |
| 1 Oct 2026 | 5.40% |
| 30 Sep 2026 | 5.34% |
| 29 Sep 2026 | 5.37% |
| 28 Sep 2026 | 5.41% |
The yield on inflation-indexed Australian Government bonds.
| Period | Real 10-year yield |
|---|---|
| 14 Oct 2026 | 2.98% |
| 13 Oct 2026 | 2.96% |
| 12 Oct 2026 | 2.96% |
| 9 Oct 2026 | 2.95% |
| 8 Oct 2026 | 2.99% |
| 7 Oct 2026 | 3.00% |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 2.99% |
| 2 Oct 2026 | 2.93% |
| 1 Oct 2026 | 2.99% |
| 30 Sep 2026 | 2.94% |
| 29 Sep 2026 | 2.95% |
| 28 Sep 2026 | 3.00% |
A rough market-based gauge of where the cash rate is expected to go over two years.
| Period | 2-year minus cash rate | Source value (FCMYGBAG2D − FIRMMCRTD) |
|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 2026 | 0.32 pp | 4.919 − 4.6 |
| 13 Oct 2026 | 0.29 pp | 4.886 − 4.6 |
| 12 Oct 2026 | 0.30 pp | 4.904 − 4.6 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | 0.31 pp | 4.909 − 4.6 |
| 8 Oct 2026 | 0.31 pp | 4.911 − 4.6 |
| 7 Oct 2026 | 0.34 pp | 4.94 − 4.6 |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 0.33 pp | 4.931 − 4.6 |
| 2 Oct 2026 | 0.31 pp | 4.909 − 4.6 |
| 1 Oct 2026 | 0.39 pp | 4.987 − 4.6 |
| 30 Sep 2026 | 0.34 pp | 4.942 − 4.6 |
| 29 Sep 2026 | 0.63 pp | 4.984 − 4.35 |
| 28 Sep 2026 | 0.71 pp | 5.057 − 4.35 |
Whether the economy is expanding and how the labour market is holding up.
Share of the labour force without a job and looking for one.
| Period | Unemployment rate |
|---|---|
| Sep 2026 | 4.7% |
| Aug 2026 | 4.7% |
| Jul 2026 | 4.5% |
| Jun 2026 | 4.4% |
| May 2026 | 4.4% |
| Apr 2026 | 4.5% |
| Mar 2026 | 4.3% |
| Feb 2026 | 4.3% |
| Jan 2026 | 4.1% |
| Dec 2025 | 4.1% |
| Nov 2025 | 4.3% |
| Oct 2025 | 4.3% |
People employed, change from the previous month.
| Period | Employment change | Source value (GLFSEPTSA) |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 2026 | −39,300 | 14,782.7 |
| Aug 2026 | +29,300 | 14,822 |
| Jul 2026 | −17,100 | 14,792.7 |
| Jun 2026 | +76,400 | 14,809.8 |
| May 2026 | +34,900 | 14,733.4 |
| Apr 2026 | −41,200 | 14,698.5 |
| Mar 2026 | +21,200 | 14,739.7 |
| Feb 2026 | +22,400 | 14,718.5 |
| Jan 2026 | +33,600 | 14,696.1 |
| Dec 2025 | +57,300 | 14,662.5 |
| Nov 2025 | −42,100 | 14,605.2 |
| Oct 2025 | +33,000 | 14,647.3 |
Year-ended growth in the number of people employed.
| Period | Employment growth |
|---|---|
| Sep 2026 | 1.2% |
| Aug 2026 | 1.5% |
| Jul 2026 | 1.2% |
| Jun 2026 | 1.7% |
| May 2026 | 1.0% |
| Apr 2026 | 0.6% |
| Mar 2026 | 1.6% |
| Feb 2026 | 1.7% |
| Jan 2026 | 1.0% |
| Dec 2025 | 1.0% |
| Nov 2025 | 1.0% |
| Oct 2025 | 1.4% |
Share of the population aged 15 and over that is working or looking for work.
| Period | Participation rate |
|---|---|
| Sep 2026 | 66.8% |
| Aug 2026 | 67.0% |
| Jul 2026 | 66.9% |
| Jun 2026 | 67.0% |
| May 2026 | 66.7% |
| Apr 2026 | 66.7% |
| Mar 2026 | 66.8% |
| Feb 2026 | 66.8% |
| Jan 2026 | 66.7% |
| Dec 2025 | 66.7% |
| Nov 2025 | 66.6% |
| Oct 2025 | 66.9% |
Quarterly growth (not annualised) and growth over the past year.
| Period | Real GDP (quarter) | Source value (GGDPCVGDP) |
|---|---|---|
| Jun qtr 2026 | 0.4% | 699,461 |
| Mar qtr 2026 | 0.3% | 696,539 |
| Dec qtr 2025 | 0.9% | 694,551 |
| Sep qtr 2025 | 0.5% | 688,271 |
| Jun qtr 2025 | 0.8% | 684,822 |
| Mar qtr 2025 | 0.4% | 679,519 |
| Dec qtr 2024 | 0.4% | 676,864 |
| Sep qtr 2024 | 0.3% | 673,895 |
| Jun qtr 2024 | 0.2% | 672,062 |
| Mar qtr 2024 | 0.3% | 670,929 |
| Dec qtr 2023 | 0.0% | 668,625 |
| Sep qtr 2023 | 0.4% | 668,408 |
| Period | Real GDP (year) |
|---|---|
| Jun qtr 2026 | 2.1% |
| Mar qtr 2026 | 2.5% |
| Dec qtr 2025 | 2.6% |
| Sep qtr 2025 | 2.1% |
| Jun qtr 2025 | 1.9% |
| Mar qtr 2025 | 1.3% |
| Dec qtr 2024 | 1.2% |
| Sep qtr 2024 | 0.8% |
| Jun qtr 2024 | 0.9% |
| Mar qtr 2024 | 1.1% |
| Dec qtr 2023 | 1.3% |
| Sep qtr 2023 | 2.2% |
Signs of strain in credit and funding markets, expected share-market volatility and the shape of the yield curve.
10-year minus 2-year government bond yields. Below zero, the curve is inverted.
| Period | Curve 10y-2y | Source value (FCMYGBAG10D − FCMYGBAG2D) |
|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 2026 | 0.40 pp | 5.314 − 4.919 |
| 13 Oct 2026 | 0.40 pp | 5.288 − 4.886 |
| 12 Oct 2026 | 0.41 pp | 5.317 − 4.904 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | 0.42 pp | 5.331 − 4.909 |
| 8 Oct 2026 | 0.48 pp | 5.39 − 4.911 |
| 7 Oct 2026 | 0.46 pp | 5.404 − 4.94 |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 0.46 pp | 5.394 − 4.931 |
| 2 Oct 2026 | 0.43 pp | 5.334 − 4.909 |
| 1 Oct 2026 | 0.41 pp | 5.397 − 4.987 |
| 30 Sep 2026 | 0.40 pp | 5.344 − 4.942 |
| 29 Sep 2026 | 0.39 pp | 5.369 − 4.984 |
| 28 Sep 2026 | 0.36 pp | 5.413 − 5.057 |
Extra yield on BBB-rated company bonds over government bonds.
| Period | BBB spread | Source value (FNFYBBB5M − FCMYGBAG5) |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 2026 | 1.11 pp | 6.07 − 4.958 |
| Aug 2026 | 1.09 pp | 5.71 − 4.624 |
| Jul 2026 | 1.03 pp | 5.58 − 4.552 |
| Jun 2026 | 0.94 pp | 5.43 − 4.493 |
| May 2026 | 0.94 pp | 5.61 − 4.667 |
| Apr 2026 | 1.21 pp | 5.89 − 4.683 |
| Mar 2026 | 1.30 pp | 5.92 − 4.621 |
| Feb 2026 | 0.99 pp | 5.36 − 4.373 |
| Jan 2026 | 1.09 pp | 5.39 − 4.301 |
| Dec 2025 | 1.09 pp | 5.34 − 4.254 |
| Nov 2025 | 1.26 pp | 5.16 − 3.904 |
| Oct 2025 | 1.23 pp | 4.88 − 3.646 |
The premium banks pay to borrow for three months over the expected cash rate.
| Period | Bank bill-OIS spread | Source value (FIRMMBAB90D − FIRMMOIS3D) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Dec 2022 | 0 bp | 3.04 − 3.04 |
| 30 Nov 2022 | 3 bp | 3.07 − 3.04 |
| 29 Nov 2022 | 2 bp | 3.08 − 3.06 |
| 28 Nov 2022 | 1 bp | 3.07 − 3.06 |
| 25 Nov 2022 | 4 bp | 3.11 − 3.07 |
| 24 Nov 2022 | 2 bp | 3.09 − 3.07 |
| 23 Nov 2022 | 6 bp | 3.12 − 3.06 |
| 22 Nov 2022 | 3 bp | 3.07 − 3.04 |
| 21 Nov 2022 | 3 bp | 3.07 − 3.04 |
| 18 Nov 2022 | 2 bp | 3.05 − 3.03 |
| 17 Nov 2022 | 2 bp | 3.04 − 3.02 |
| 16 Nov 2022 | 7 bp | 3.07 − 3 |
Official statistics are often revised after their first release. These are the latest changes we have seen to Australian series.
We record a revision when a value we already hold changes at the source. Tracking began on 20 Oct 2026, so revisions made before then are not shown, and figures are in the source's own units.
No revisions detected