US yield curve: 10-year minus 3-month
The gap between the 10-year yield and the 3-month bill yield.
- Latest
- 0.86 pp
- Previous
- 0.88 pp
- Change
- −0.02 pp
- Frequency
- Daily
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US yield curve: 10-year minus 3-month
The gap between the 10-year yield and the 3-month bill yield.
- Curve 10y-3m
- 0.86 pp
- 29 Jul 2025 to 14 Aug 2025, lowest −0.13 pp
- 17 Jun 2025 to 7 Jul 2025, lowest −0.17 pp
- 26 Feb 2025 to 21 Mar 2025, lowest −0.19 pp
- 25 Oct 2022 to 12 Dec 2024, lowest −1.89 pp
Data table
| Period | Curve 10y-3m |
|---|---|
| 20 Oct 2026 | 0.86 pp |
| 19 Oct 2026 | 0.88 pp |
| 16 Oct 2026 | 0.83 pp |
| 15 Oct 2026 | 0.82 pp |
| 14 Oct 2026 | 0.91 pp |
| 13 Oct 2026 | 0.95 pp |
| 9 Oct 2026 | 0.99 pp |
| 8 Oct 2026 | 0.99 pp |
| 7 Oct 2026 | 1.06 pp |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 1.06 pp |
| 5 Oct 2026 | 1.09 pp |
| 2 Oct 2026 | 1.09 pp |
Periods below zero
Runs of at least ten observations in a row below zero, newest first.
- 29 Jul 2025 to 14 Aug 2025: 13 observations, lowest −0.13 pp
- 17 Jun 2025 to 7 Jul 2025: 13 observations, lowest −0.17 pp
- 26 Feb 2025 to 21 Mar 2025: 18 observations, lowest −0.19 pp
- 25 Oct 2022 to 12 Dec 2024: 534 observations, lowest −1.89 pp
- 18 Feb 2020 to 2 Mar 2020: 10 observations, lowest −0.20 pp
- 24 Jul 2019 to 10 Oct 2019: 56 observations, lowest −0.52 pp
- 23 May 2019 to 22 Jul 2019: 41 observations, lowest −0.28 pp
- 20 Jul 2007 to 9 Aug 2007: 15 observations, lowest −0.18 pp
About this indicator
- What it measures
- The 10-year Treasury constant-maturity yield minus the 3-month Treasury bill yield.
- How it is calculated
- Calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis from the H.15 yields.
- How to read it
- Research by the New York Fed uses this spread for its recession-probability model. Below zero, the curve is inverted.
- Caveats
- As with any spread, the signal depends on why the curve moved: rising short rates and falling long rates mean different things.
- Frequency
- Daily
- Typical release
- Each business day.
Sources
- 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity View at the source (opens in a new tab)
Recent observations
Newest first. For a calculated figure, the source value it comes from is shown beside it.
| Period | Curve 10y-3m | First recorded here |
|---|---|---|
| 20 Oct 2026 | 0.86 pp | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 19 Oct 2026 | 0.88 pp | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | 0.83 pp | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 15 Oct 2026 | 0.82 pp | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 14 Oct 2026 | 0.91 pp | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 13 Oct 2026 | 0.95 pp | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | 0.99 pp | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 8 Oct 2026 | 0.99 pp | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 7 Oct 2026 | 1.06 pp | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 1.06 pp | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 5 Oct 2026 | 1.09 pp | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 2 Oct 2026 | 1.09 pp | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 1 Oct 2026 | 1.07 pp | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 30 Sep 2026 | 1.09 pp | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 29 Sep 2026 | 1.01 pp | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 28 Sep 2026 | 0.96 pp | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 25 Sep 2026 | 0.93 pp | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 24 Sep 2026 | 0.94 pp | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 23 Sep 2026 | 0.92 pp | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 22 Sep 2026 | 0.80 pp | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 21 Sep 2026 | 0.79 pp | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 18 Sep 2026 | 0.87 pp | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 17 Sep 2026 | 0.82 pp | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 16 Sep 2026 | 0.87 pp | 20 Oct 2026 |
Revisions
We record a revision when a value we already hold changes at the source. Tracking began on 20 Oct 2026, so revisions made before then are not shown, and figures are in the source's own units.
No revisions detected
No stored value has changed since tracking began.
Related indicators
United States · Financial stress