Consumer inflation expectations (1 year ahead)
What households expect inflation to be over the next year.
- Latest
- 4.9%
- Previous
- 5.5%
- Change
- −0.6 pp
- Frequency
- Quarterly
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Consumer inflation expectations (1 year ahead)
What households expect inflation to be over the next year.
- Consumers, 1 year
- 4.9%
Data table
| Period | Consumers, 1 year |
|---|---|
| Sep qtr 2026 | 4.9% |
| Jun qtr 2026 | 5.5% |
| Mar qtr 2026 | 5.2% |
| Dec qtr 2025 | 4.7% |
| Sep qtr 2025 | 4.7% |
| Jun qtr 2025 | 5.0% |
| Mar qtr 2025 | 3.6% |
| Dec qtr 2024 | 4.2% |
| Sep qtr 2024 | 4.4% |
| Jun qtr 2024 | 4.4% |
| Mar qtr 2024 | 4.3% |
| Dec qtr 2023 | 4.5% |
About this indicator
- What it measures
- Expected inflation over the next 12 months from the Melbourne Institute survey of consumers, as compiled by the RBA.
- How it is calculated
- Published by the RBA in table G3 from the Melbourne Institute survey.
- How to read it
- Households' expectations can influence wage claims and spending. They usually sit above actual inflation.
- Caveats
- Survey answers are strongly influenced by recent fuel and grocery prices.
- Frequency
- Quarterly
- Typical release
- Quarterly in RBA table G3.
Sources
- Consumer inflation expectations - 1-year ahead View at the source (opens in a new tab)
Recent observations
Newest first. For a calculated figure, the source value it comes from is shown beside it.
| Period | Consumers, 1 year | First recorded here |
|---|---|---|
| Sep qtr 2026 | 4.9% | 20 Oct 2026 |
| Jun qtr 2026 | 5.5% | 20 Oct 2026 |
| Mar qtr 2026 | 5.2% | 20 Oct 2026 |
| Dec qtr 2025 | 4.7% | 20 Oct 2026 |
| Sep qtr 2025 | 4.7% | 20 Oct 2026 |
| Jun qtr 2025 | 5.0% | 20 Oct 2026 |
| Mar qtr 2025 | 3.6% | 20 Oct 2026 |
| Dec qtr 2024 | 4.2% | 20 Oct 2026 |
| Sep qtr 2024 | 4.4% | 20 Oct 2026 |
| Jun qtr 2024 | 4.4% | 20 Oct 2026 |
| Mar qtr 2024 | 4.3% | 20 Oct 2026 |
| Dec qtr 2023 | 4.5% | 20 Oct 2026 |
| Sep qtr 2023 | 4.6% | 20 Oct 2026 |
| Jun qtr 2023 | 5.2% | 20 Oct 2026 |
| Mar qtr 2023 | 5.0% | 20 Oct 2026 |
| Dec qtr 2022 | 5.2% | 20 Oct 2026 |
| Sep qtr 2022 | 5.4% | 20 Oct 2026 |
| Jun qtr 2022 | 6.7% | 20 Oct 2026 |
| Mar qtr 2022 | 4.9% | 20 Oct 2026 |
Revisions
We record a revision when a value we already hold changes at the source. Tracking began on 20 Oct 2026, so revisions made before then are not shown, and figures are in the source's own units.
No revisions detected
No stored value has changed since tracking began.
Related indicators
Australia · Inflation and purchasing power