Australian 2-year yield minus the cash rate (proxy)
A simple proxy for whether markets expect the cash rate to rise or fall over two years.
- Latest
- 0.32 pp
- Previous
- 0.29 pp
- Change
- +0.03 pp
- Frequency
- Daily
Calculated by Take Profits
Spread = 2-year Australian Government bond yield − cash rate target, on the same day (percentage points). The inputs are the official series listed under Sources; the result is not published by the source in this form.
General information only: nothing on TakeProfits takes into account your objectives, financial situation or needs, and it isn't personal financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Consider whether it suits you and get advice from a licensed adviser before acting. Market data may be delayed and comes from third-party sources.
Australian 2-year yield minus the cash rate (proxy)
A simple proxy for whether markets expect the cash rate to rise or fall over two years.
- 2-year minus cash rate
- 0.32 pp
- 8 Nov 2023 to 3 Nov 2025, lowest −0.89 pp
- 13 Jul 2023 to 27 Sep 2023, lowest −0.29 pp
- 7 Mar 2023 to 14 Jun 2023, lowest −0.89 pp
- 15 Mar 2021 to 8 Oct 2021, lowest −0.10 pp
Data table
| Period | 2-year minus cash rate | Source value (FCMYGBAG2D − FIRMMCRTD) |
|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 2026 | 0.32 pp | 4.919 − 4.6 |
| 13 Oct 2026 | 0.29 pp | 4.886 − 4.6 |
| 12 Oct 2026 | 0.30 pp | 4.904 − 4.6 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | 0.31 pp | 4.909 − 4.6 |
| 8 Oct 2026 | 0.31 pp | 4.911 − 4.6 |
| 7 Oct 2026 | 0.34 pp | 4.94 − 4.6 |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 0.33 pp | 4.931 − 4.6 |
| 2 Oct 2026 | 0.31 pp | 4.909 − 4.6 |
| 1 Oct 2026 | 0.39 pp | 4.987 − 4.6 |
| 30 Sep 2026 | 0.34 pp | 4.942 − 4.6 |
| 29 Sep 2026 | 0.63 pp | 4.984 − 4.35 |
| 28 Sep 2026 | 0.71 pp | 5.057 − 4.35 |
Periods below zero
Runs of at least ten observations in a row below zero, newest first.
- 8 Nov 2023 to 3 Nov 2025: 501 observations, lowest −0.89 pp
- 13 Jul 2023 to 27 Sep 2023: 55 observations, lowest −0.29 pp
- 7 Mar 2023 to 14 Jun 2023: 68 observations, lowest −0.89 pp
- 15 Mar 2021 to 8 Oct 2021: 145 observations, lowest −0.10 pp
- 21 Dec 2020 to 16 Feb 2021: 38 observations, lowest −0.03 pp
- 16 Nov 2020 to 2 Dec 2020: 13 observations, lowest −0.01 pp
- 14 Sep 2020 to 3 Nov 2020: 36 observations, lowest −0.16 pp
- 31 Mar 2020 to 13 May 2020: 30 observations, lowest −0.04 pp
About this indicator
- What it measures
- How far the 2-year government bond yield sits above or below the current cash rate target.
- How it is calculated
- Calculated by us for each day both series have a value: 2-year bond yield − cash rate target.
- How to read it
- A positive gap suggests markets expect the cash rate to average higher over two years; a negative gap suggests cuts. It is a proxy, not a forecast.
- Caveats
- Bond yields include a term premium and are influenced by global yields, so the gap is a rough gauge only. ASX 30-day interbank cash rate futures give a more direct reading of market pricing.
- Frequency
- Daily
- Typical release
- When both inputs are published.
Sources
- Australian Government 2 year bond View at the source (opens in a new tab)
- Cash Rate Target View at the source (opens in a new tab)
Recent observations
Newest first. For a calculated figure, the source value it comes from is shown beside it.
| Period | 2-year minus cash rate | Source value (FCMYGBAG2D − FIRMMCRTD) | First recorded here |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 2026 | 0.32 pp | 4.919 − 4.6 | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 13 Oct 2026 | 0.29 pp | 4.886 − 4.6 | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 12 Oct 2026 | 0.30 pp | 4.904 − 4.6 | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | 0.31 pp | 4.909 − 4.6 | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 8 Oct 2026 | 0.31 pp | 4.911 − 4.6 | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 7 Oct 2026 | 0.34 pp | 4.94 − 4.6 | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 0.33 pp | 4.931 − 4.6 | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 2 Oct 2026 | 0.31 pp | 4.909 − 4.6 | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 1 Oct 2026 | 0.39 pp | 4.987 − 4.6 | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 30 Sep 2026 | 0.34 pp | 4.942 − 4.6 | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 29 Sep 2026 | 0.63 pp | 4.984 − 4.35 | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 28 Sep 2026 | 0.71 pp | 5.057 − 4.35 | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 25 Sep 2026 | 0.67 pp | 5.018 − 4.35 | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 24 Sep 2026 | 0.68 pp | 5.029 − 4.35 | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 23 Sep 2026 | 0.60 pp | 4.947 − 4.35 | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 22 Sep 2026 | 0.65 pp | 5.003 − 4.35 | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 21 Sep 2026 | 0.63 pp | 4.981 − 4.35 | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 18 Sep 2026 | 0.60 pp | 4.947 − 4.35 | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 17 Sep 2026 | 0.62 pp | 4.971 − 4.35 | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 16 Sep 2026 | 0.65 pp | 5 − 4.35 | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 15 Sep 2026 | 0.70 pp | 5.054 − 4.35 | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 14 Sep 2026 | 0.62 pp | 4.965 − 4.35 | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 11 Sep 2026 | 0.66 pp | 5.006 − 4.35 | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 10 Sep 2026 | 0.51 pp | 4.863 − 4.35 | 20 Oct 2026 |
Revisions
We record a revision when a value we already hold changes at the source. Tracking began on 20 Oct 2026, so revisions made before then are not shown, and figures are in the source's own units.
No revisions detected
No stored value has changed since tracking began.
Related indicators
Australia · Interest rates and rate expectations